Cacheable by Design? Training Mixture-of-Experts Routers for Locality Against the Edge Memory-Bandwidth Wall: A Pre-Registered Negative Result with a Systems Measurement Study

arXiv:2608.18261v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Serving a 235B-parameter Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) model on a single 8 GB GPU is bottlenecked not by compute but by memory bandwidth: decode must stream each token's active experts from whichever tier holds them, and on consumer hardware most experts sit on an SSD far slower than RAM. We quantify this bandwidth wall on Qwen3-235B (Q4_K_M, 134 GB): measured decode is 0.44 tok/s warm, matching a bytes-per-token / bandwidth model, while a batching scheme that should amortize one disk sweep instead collapses at batch 32 from paging thrash. We build llama-moe-trace, a zero-surgery router-telemetry tool, and measure routing on Qwen3-30B: adjacent-token expert reuse is 2.0x chance, 95% of traffic uses 52.5% of experts, and an LRU cache of 13.4% of experts serves 66% of requests. We then ask whether cacheability is trainable: we pre-register training of 137M MoE language models with auxiliary locality and domain router losses, under joint criteria on cache-miss reduction and perplexity. The mechanism works (misses down up to 60%; a 99% static-pin hit rate) but every configuration fails the pre-registered =1% perplexity gate -- miss reduction and quality are tightly coupled. Concurrent StickyMoE reports the same loss as near-free on single-domain sub-25M models; on multi-domain 137M we find the tax real. Our contribution is this pre-registered, stricter-criterion, multi-domain evaluation plus edge-serving measurements. A 340M rung shows the tax does not shrink with scale (it rises slightly). We further show training-free cache-aware rerouting stacks with trained locality -- together ~80% miss reduction at =3.4% perplexity at both sizes, far cheaper than either alone -- while domain-primed prefetching does not help. All code, traces, and the pre-registration are released.