Uncertainty can turn a routine payment problem into a cost that is twice as large.

That gap sits at the center of “Early Detection: Why Top Performing Firms Focus on Fraud Before It Starts,” a May edition of The 2026 Certainty Project produced by PYMNTS Intelligence in partnership with Plaid. The report finds that payment fraud and nonclearance cost high-uncertainty firms an average of 42 basis points of revenue, double the 21 basis points reported by low-uncertainty firms. The findings suggest that companies can reduce some of that strain by moving account and identity checks earlier in the payment process.

• Uncertainty raises the financial toll. Across all 60 middle-market firms surveyed, payment fraud and nonclearance cost an average of 31 basis points of revenue. High-uncertainty firms reported a much steeper cost. Because revenue measures sales rather than profit, even a fraction of a percentage point can cut deeply into earnings. Faster payments can add pressure. Firms that said greater payment speed increased their fraud exposure reported average accounts receivable integrity costs of 41 basis points, about 60% more than other firms.
• Poor integration adds another layer of risk. Firms that said their verification and fraud tools didn’t fit well into accounts receivable workflows reported average costs of 40 basis points of annual revenue. Other companies reported costs ranging from 30 to 35 basis points. A strong verification tool works like a smoke alarm near the source: It provides the most value when it detects danger before damage spreads.
• Earlier checks offer a practical path forward. Roughly 81% of firms that usually detect fraud or nonclearance before settlement use instant bank account verification, compared with 47% of firms that detect problems after settlement. Open banking-based ownership checks show an even wider split, at 76% versus 35%. Among companies that recently adopted instant or real-time bank account verification, 84% called it very or extremely effective at reducing fraud risk or improving payment integrity.

The broader findings show how much room companies have to improve. Fifty-seven percent usually detect fraud or failed payments only after settlement, while 30% catch them before initiation or during authorization. In addition, 88% reported at least one accounts receivable integrity issue during the previous 12 months. Seven in 10 encountered ACH returns tied to invalid or closed accounts or customer input errors.

Those results point to a positive conclusion. Firms don’t need to wait for business conditions to become more predictable. By confirming that an account exists, checking that it belongs to the right party and assessing risk before funds move, they can create more certainty inside the payment process itself.

At PYMNTS Intelligence, we work with businesses to uncover insights that fuel intelligent, data-driven discussions on changing customer expectations, a more connected economy and the strategic shifts necessary to achieve outcomes. With rigorous research methodologies and unwavering commitment to objective quality, we offer trusted data to grow your business. As our partner, you’ll have access to our diverse team of PhDs, researchers, data analysts, number crunchers, subject matter veterans and editorial experts.

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